So, the day has arrived and I'm about to go and cast my vote. I was quite uncertain at the start of this process, but I have over the last few weeks come to the conclusion that I must vote for Remain. Whilst there are some potentially positive outcomes for Brexit over the long term, I'm not convinced they are very likely, and feel they are outweighed quite strongly by longer terms risks combined with the almost certain short to medium term costs of leaving, in terms of lost jobs and incomes and damage to public services.
I have already discussed the social, economic and environmental issues that are most important to me in reaching my decision about the long-term costs and benefits of Brexit. However, there are of course practical issues relating to how Brexit might affect me personally, and also the more psychological and emotional reasons that drive people to believe one thing are another, that I am certainly not immune to.
It would be dishonest of me not to highlight purely selfish reasons for why I will be very relieved if I wake up tomorrow to discover that we have decided to remain in the EU. The most immediate relates to the damage it will do to the pound. Britain already has a very high current account deficit and so we rely on large capital inflows from aboard to plug the gap. Brexit is almost certain to stem that flow, precipitating a sharp drop in the value of Stirling. I earn my rather modest freelance income through work done for British employers. However, I am planning to spend more time living and working from abroad in the coming years, maybe even in buying some land. A permanent devaluation of the pound would therefore make me financially worse off in a very direct and immediate way. Of course everyone in the UK would feel this to some extent as the imports we rely on so heavily become more expensive and prices in the shops rise accordingly.
My parents who live in Germany and rely in large part on my father's UK pension will also suffer the consequences of weaker pound. They also have concerns about how a Brexit might affect my fathers's access to health care, although my mother who is German might be less affected. A vote to remain would clearly be better for them, and another reason why both they and I will be relieved by a Remain outcome.
Another obvious concern is the potential effect that a Leave outcome would have on my own income earning capacity. I work predominantly in the higher education sector in an area related to international aid and development, and whilst it is difficult to predict how different parts of each of those sector might be affected by a Brexit, I would be very surprised if the net effect were anything other than negative. I will feel genuinely less secure, financially, if we do vote to leave.
Looking towards the longer term, say, 20 years from now, I will have retired and be more dependant than I am now on public services, such as health care, and of course the state pension. I don't think the future looks particularly bright in those areas, even without a Brexit, however, I'm fairly sure that a Brexit will make older people even more vulnerable than they already are, unless that is, it triggers a radical shift to the left in British politics and the way we run our economy. But, as I've said in previous posts I am not particularly confident that a Brexit will have that effect, although I don't think it is impossible.
One thing that has struck me about this referendum is how well it has demonstrated a deep human need to believe and belong. In our pluralistic, secular, post-modern, and increasingly cynical society there is so little to believe in, and with everything changing so rapidly - from culture to technology, the nature of work and the people who live around you - it is increasingly hard to know where you belong. Many of the commentators have summed the referendum up as being all about identity and I agree.
It is taken me a while to find my identity in this debate, but I did find it eventually - I belong to Remain and believe we ought to stay in the EU, at least for now. Having discovered that identity, partly through rational analysis, but also through how I felt emotionally about real people making arguments on either side of the debate, I have found myself being quite protective and defensive of that identity. I think I was emotionally a bit more attached to Remain from the start, so perhaps my mind was already made up and I went out to find the evidence to support that view, rather than examining the issue in truly objective and dispassionate way? I don't know. I have tried to be objective.
The final decision which I am just about to go and vote for has been made easier by the fact that I have had a very clear starting point, which is that of someone with a leaning towards leftist politics and environmental concerns. Whilst there have been advocates for Brexit from that side of the political spectrum, the majority do seem to have shifted towards Remain. There are a few notable exceptions, such Larry Elliott of the Guardian, and Bill Mitchell, but most have now sided with Remain despite deep reservations. So maybe I am after all, just following 'my crowd', the people I feel I belong to, and the things they believe in. Anyway, here goes....
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