Brexit 1 (How to vote?)

This year I will have the opportunity to vote for Britain to remain in the EU or leave it. How can I possibly make such a decision?

This will be the first of a number of posts in which I shall try and break the question down systematically in the hope of finding an answer. It is likely that I will be heavily influenced by the positions taken by people I trust and respect, and, in a rather perverse way,  by the positions of people I have very little time for. Such influence will constantly intervene in the way I interpret the debate, both intellectually and emotionally. It will to some extent determine which arguments I hear and which I do not. I wish to avoid such bias as much as I can, and this can probably be best achieved by providing a methodical and transparent account of how I reach my decision, assuming I am able to come to a decision, which is by no means guaranteed. I may decide not to vote.

I shall begin by asking the following question. What do I care about that membership of the EU might affect?

Here's a simple response:

1. The well-being of myself, family and friends

2. The nature of the society in which I live (ie  social cohesion, individual freedom, well-being of the wider population)

3. Protection of nature and the environment (locally, nationally, and globally)

These may sound obvious and rather vague priorities, but one has to start somewhere. Notably absent from my list is any reference to the economy or democracy, not because these are unimportant, but because they are means to an end, rather than ends in themselves. I shall return to these in subsequent posts.

Now, it is probably true to say that the three criteria in my list are to some extent linked. I think my own well-being (1) is likely to be enhanced by success with regards to (2) and (3). However, I can also conceive of scenarios in which, even if Britain's EU referendum result is consistent with large strides in these two areas, I might still end up being personally worse off as a result of the referendum. I think it is therefore legitimate to treat (1) separately from (2) and (3). In (1) my concern is largely self-centred, whereas, in trying to evaluate the impact of EU membership on (2) and (3) I am seeking to be a good citizen and giving some weight to issues which may or may not affect me directly.

It is probably also fair to say that (2) and (3) are closely connected, especially in the longer term. Again, though, it is helpful to treat these criteria independently because one does not guarantee the other. Certainly there is some minimum level of environmental protection required for human society to thrive, although how low that minimum can be is highly contentious. At the same time, it is also possible to conceive of situations where nature and the environment flourish at the expense of society, or alternatively, where society thrives at the expense of nature - at least within certain geographic and temporal boundaries.

Ideally, of course, I am seeking a referendum outcome that strengthens all of my three priorities simultaneously. That said, even if I do reach reasonably firm conclusions about how Brexit might affect my key areas of concern, I have to face up to the fact that there may be trade-offs. Continued membership may deliver in some areas but not in others. I will therefore need to attach some implicit weight to each of my priorities. What's more, within each of my broad criteria there are numerous sub-criteria that will also have to be weighted.

It would of course be dishonest of me to suggest that the weight I attach to voting as a good citizen and decent human being takes precedent over voting on a purely selfish basis.  I am hoping that the trade-offs won't appear too large, if there are any, but at present that is still uncharted territory. I shall explore further in future posts.